Swing State Dynamics: North Carolina’s Critical Vote Ahead of the Election

Christie Brown, a lifelong resident of Siler City, has witnessed the slow decline of her community over the past 54 years. Once a thriving hub thanks to its textile and furniture industries, Siler City has seen younger residents depart in search of better opportunities. Brown, who runs Chatham Homes Realty, has assembled a collection of nostalgic photographs in her office showcasing the vibrant past: bustling department stores and crowds eager to experience their first air-conditioned shopping experience.

Today, Siler City, with a population of around 7,700 nestled in central North Carolina, faces a stark reality characterized by a poverty rate that is double the national average. A recent sunny lunch hour revealed a quiet main street, eerily reminiscent of British towns such as Redcar and Middlesbrough, which have similarly suffered after their key industries vanished.

Siler City reflects the broader challenges facing North Carolina as the presidential election approaches on November 5. “Everyone I went to high school with left because there was nothing here for them,” Brown remarked. “I had to tell my daughters to seek opportunities elsewhere.”

With election day just two weeks away, the political landscape is mostly settled across America, except in a handful of key states, including North Carolina, which remains a battleground. In these swing states, the outcome is still uncertain, greatly impacting the national election.

North Carolina is classified as one of the critical seven swing states, where the 2020 election results were closely contested, with differences of less than 3 percent. The state has a significant electoral role due to the electoral college system, where votes correlate with congressional representation. A total of 538 electoral votes exist, and a candidate needs 270 to win.

In 2020, Donald Trump secured North Carolina with a mere 1.3 percent victory margin—just 74,483 votes—earning all of the state’s 15 electoral votes. This system means that small shifts in voter preferences can change the election’s outcome, as noted by Democrat strategist Dmitri Mehlhorn: “A very narrow segment of voters might end up deciding the overall election result.”

Christie Brown reflects on the decline in Siler City

While Brown did not reveal her political stance, she acknowledged the sensitive nature of discussing politics and religion in her profession. This report is part of a series examining swing states pivotal to the 2024 election, with the first installment focusing on North Carolina, which recent polling indicates is still highly competitive.

Economic concerns dominate the political discourse in North Carolina, mirroring national sentiments. Approximately 52 percent of voters cite the economy as their primary issue, the highest level of concern since the 2008 financial crisis. Voter anxiety revolves not around the threat of recession but rather inflation, which has surged nearly 20 percent since President Biden took office. The current administration has faced criticism for rising prices and stagnant wages, which could impact societal perceptions of both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Kamala Harris faces economic challenges that could define the election

Although unemployment has fallen to 4.1 percent and interest rates are decreasing, the cost of essentials remains high, fueling public discontent toward the Biden administration. Trump is shown to be ahead of Harris in polls regarding economic performance, underscoring the challenges facing the current vice president.

North Carolina is positioned as an intriguing case study; as Brown optimistically put it, “Siler City is about to be discovered.” Nearby, a $14 billion electric vehicle battery plant by Toyota is underway, and Wolfspeed is nearing completion on a $5 billion semiconductor factory essential for the AI and EV industries. These developments are expected to generate around 7,000 jobs in the region and reflect the potential impact of the Inflation Reduction Act, aimed at encouraging green technology.

Bridget Johnson, marketing lead at Wolfspeed, noted that the company anticipates substantial tax breaks under the Inflation Reduction Act. Toyota has expanded its Liberty facility due to this legislation, planning to employ around 5,000 workers upon opening. For Democrats, the success of these initiatives may be crucial in swaying public opinion.

Trump won North Carolina narrowly in 2020; the impact of a small voter base is significant

The economic recovery holds promise, yet it remains to be seen whether voters currently feeling the pinch will be persuaded by the potential future job growth. Republican influencer Art Pope criticized Harris for claiming credit for economic developments that, in his view, would have occurred regardless of her involvement.

Trump’s proposal to eliminate unspent funds from the Inflation Reduction Act contrasts starkly with his plans for tax cuts favoring the wealthy, portraying himself as the protector of American jobs with increased tariffs on imports from China.

Public sentiment varies; for instance, Justin Parmenter, a Charlotte teacher and father of two, believes Trump’s past economic record would not benefit ordinary Americans, viewing him as a failed businessman whose tariffs could elevate living costs.

Wolfspeed’s factory is nearing completion; the area is optimistic about new job opportunities

The demographic shifts in North Carolina suggest a competitive electoral landscape, with a population increase of nearly 400,000 since 2020—many of whom are young and educated voters inclined to lean Democratic. Factors such as local educational institutions, the Research Triangle tech area, and significant developments contribute to this trend. Additionally, Siler City has experienced a diverse demographic change, where Hispanic residents now make up 52 percent of the population.

Several unpredictable elements could influence the election outcome. Controversy surrounding Mark Robinson, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, has arisen, following racially charged messages that surfaced. Meanwhile, the impact of Hurricane Helene, which devastated parts of Western North Carolina, may disrupt polling operations in heavily Republican areas, threatening voter turnout.

Democratic leaders in North Carolina highlight the importance of the election, emphasizing measures taken to sustain business growth post-2016’s contentious policies. The state’s regulatory environment has adapted to avoid the pitfalls that previously deterred major firms.

Jay Chaudhuri talks about the high stakes in North Carolina's upcoming election

A victory for Trump, along with a potential win for Robinson, could revive legislative momentum for controversial policies. Chaudhuri cautioned against regressing to the days when the state faced significant backlash for its controversial “bathroom bill.”

Republicans have implemented stringent voting regulations and oversight measures, raising concerns about the electoral process’s integrity. Trump has claimed that Democrats will attempt to “cheat” during the election, raising alarms on the legal ramifications post-election.

In Siler City, Brown remains hopeful for a resurgence in her community’s fortunes, stating, “I’ve been in real estate here since 1998, just holding on. Some things you don’t give up on. I love my small town.”

This report was initially published on October 12 and has been updated to reflect ongoing developments.